Manganese prices seen steady as market weighs cuts

Global manganese prices appear to have found a temporary floor with prices seen little changed this week, as the market weighs weak demand against emerging production cuts.

“It seems manganese ore prices have bottomed out, though the market is not sure if the downward trend seen over the past several months will be reversed,” a trader said.

Further downside pressure is getting increasing resistance from production cuts. More South African manganese ore producers have indicated that they plan to trim production at current levels, particularly for material hauled to ports by trucks.

One producer told McCloskey it could soon halt exports of around 40,000-52,000 t a month that is transported by trucks. “It’s very tough. For October, price will stay between $3.50-3.60/dmtu Tianjin (for semi-carbonate ore) and linger there for three to six months, given that GEMCO will also come back online next year,” he said.

Another supplier indicated that its production levels were currently unchanged but would likely fall soon at current prices.

On Friday, high-grade manganese ore was assessed at $4.91/dmtu CIF Tianjin, unchanged from the previous week, while semi-carbonate prices edged up to $3.74/dmtu CIF Tianjin, from $3.72/dmtu in the previous week. On an FOB basis, semi-carbonate prices rose to $3.00/dmtu from $2.98/dmtu previously.

In India, offers for imported manganese ore remained unchanged on the week, after suppliers managed to hold up offers over the past two weeks, anticipating a revival in steel demand.

Offers for high-grade material from Vizag were heard at the equivalent of $5.00-5.10/dmtu, while semi-carbonate grades of 36.5% content were heard at $3.85-3.90/dmtu, according to Indian ferroalloys producers.

McCloskey analysts updated their semi-carbonate manganese ore forecasts to $2.89/dmtu FOB Port Elizabeth and $3.62/dmtu CIF Tianjin for Q4. For high grade
44% content, the price is forecast to average $4.79/dmtu in Q4.